I’ve witnessed many emerging writers and filmmakers spend a lot of time on social media of late discussing the recent Warner Bros/HBO Max deal, what impact it will have on them, and whether it changes their immediate plans and works-in-progress.
My reaction to this is three-fold:
ONE: Distribution
First and foremost, it’s great to see filmmakers thinking about distribution. Because that’s what we are really talking about here: how content gets delivered to audiences, and how the general public consumes it. That’s distribution in a nutshell right there.
Every filmmaker, whether experienced or just starting out, needs to be aware of how distribution works and how it impacts all of us. The fact that - whether they know it or not - when discussing this deal, filmmakers are actually studying the distribution ecosystem and seeing where they may fit into it can only be a good thing, and help them to make smarter choices going forward.
The studios are now looking at distribution more carefully than ever. Their previously-reliable distribution models have suddenly been shaken up. This will inevitably affect the creative choices that they make, both in terms of the types of films that they produce, and the ways in which they market them. This will have an effect on everyone in the industry at some point.
I’ve said this already in post after post after post, but distribution is the thing that keeps this entire industry ticking over, and controls the flow of financing that allows all of us to keep making films and TV shows. Distribution means knowing who your audience is and how you’re going to reach them.
The fact that emerging screenwriters, directors, producers, and investors are all now thinking about this, not just in a hypothetical way but in a very real-world and rapidly-evolving situation, will hopefully get their minds going as to all the other possibilities that are out there.
So, it’s really important that filmmakers follow this story closely (along with the rest of the distribution landscape), and keep studying these changes as they evolve through 2021 and beyond. They can then position themselves to take advantage of any opportunities that are thrown up.
TWO: Short-Term Consequences
Despite a good amount of both excitement and fear for what this deal could mean for emerging filmmakers, in the short-term, I don’t believe it should actually change too much for most of them.
Although the supposed "death of cinema" that this deal has caused has left filmmakers scratching their heads, here’s the harsh truth: even before the pandemic, it was growing increasingly difficult for most independent features to get any kind of significant theatrical release.
Indeed, part of the perceived “problem” with cinemas among the filmmaking community in recent years is that indie and arthouse films were getting squeezed out so that theatrical distribution is overwhelmingly dominated by studio movies and their distribution arms, and the franchises and formulaic fare that they commonly put out.
This is something that we’d all like to address. But, for the moment, if a theatrical release wasn’t part of your distribution strategy before the Warner Bros deal, then it’s unlikely to change much in the immediate future.
As far as most emerging filmmakers who are putting projects together for 2021 are concerned, I don’t think anybody needs to change tack too drastically in the short-term. Keep doing what you were doing and don’t lose focus.
The Warner Bros/HBO Max deal is an exciting distraction, and it could yet have interesting repercussions for all of us in the longer-term (see below), but I don’t believe that filmmakers should be dropping their current project to work on something entirely new right now, or even adjusting their work in progress just because of this.
It’s just too early to know what differences this deal will make. Whatever its trickle-down effects on the independent scene, it will take a little while for us to feel them. If a content vacuum is created, it will likely be filled in the first instance by projects that are already pretty far along.
THREE: Longer-Term Consequences
The longer-term future over the next few years is where things could really get interesting.
Much of this depends on how the situation plays out for the other parties affected by the deal, and whether consumers show a strong desire to rush back to the cinemas as and when they are able to with the ever-evolving pandemic, as we discussed in our previous posts.
On the one hand, it could be that nothing changes at all. Warner Bros has said that it still intends to release its 2021 slate of films in the cinemas, even if it is simultaneous with the HBO Max release.
This has left cinemas bloodied and bruised. However, this is nothing in comparison to the battering that they have taken in 2020 when most of them have been shut or operating at a limited capacity for most of the year. They may have to swallow their pride and accept Warner Bros' proposal for 2021 because they simply can’t afford not to, and hope that enough of their patrons stay loyal to the cinema experience rather than signing up for HBO Max.
On the other hand, if Warner Bros does find itself getting squeezed out of the theatrical circuit via a war of attrition thrust upon them by an alliance between their rival studios and the cinema chains, that will open up plenty of new slots and screens for other titles.
Could indies fill this void? Or will the other studios rush the rest of their development slates into production to fill these slots?
Alternatively, perhaps the other studios will indeed copy Warner Bros’ model and partner with a streaming service to release their own productions on a day-and-date basis, or even create their own new platforms for this reason.
There are many variables! But whatever happens at the top of the food chain, there will surely be a trickle-down effect that creates new opportunities for emerging filmmakers.
If the other studios follow suit and focus more on an online distribution model as opposed to the traditional theatrical strategy, that will create even more demand among exhibitors for content to fill their cinemas, while these new streaming services will also need to fill their platforms with content.
However this plays out, I believe that this is an exciting development for independent and emerging filmmakers, and potentially for the industry as a whole. The key will be to keep your ear close to the ground and stay flexible enough to adapt to any changes.
But Before You Get Too Excited…
Just bear this in mind: not every film is suitable for a theatrical release, even if the slots are available. This may open up new opportunities for you as a filmmaker, but only if you can deliver the right kind of material.
Some projects are still more likely to get seen and be profitable via a release that does not involve a theatrical run. If a film does not justify the P&A spend necessary to warrant a theatrical run, it will not get one, however desperate the cinemas may be to fill their seats.
Even if the theatrical distribution scene changes, that doesn’t automatically mean that cinemagoers’ tastes will change too, at least not overnight. For all our criticism of the franchises and tentpole movies that studios often put out, they are enormously popular for a reason. Audiences will still want the same kind of commercial fare that they have been used to, whether that is produced by Warner Bros or anyone else.
So, the films that might replace them will need to appeal to audiences in a similar way. There must still be some element of commerciality to any film to justify a wider release. Filmmakers need to be constantly studying market trends, and remain very conscious of what audiences want.
This could become an incredible opportunity for independent films and filmmakers, who may now have more opportunities to see their work on both the big and small screen - but only if they are the right kind of films and done well. Audience’s tastes and viewing habits take time to change.
What does an independent commercial film look like? And how can you create one? This is the challenge for emerging filmmakers in the wake of this deal. It could be that this is exactly what exhibitors and distributors will want in the future.
So, for all the controversy surrounding the Warner Bros/HBO Max deal, I see many reasons for excitement and optimism, not least for the next generation of filmmakers. How this plays out remains to be seen, but for now, it’s important to keep working hard, and be ready to take any opportunities that might suddenly land in our laps!
Ricky Margolis has over 15 years' experience in the entertainment industry and has been involved in the finance, development, production, marketing, and/or distribution of over 30 titles.
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